The relationship between China and Japan is at a critical juncture, and the pressure is mounting on Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Will she be able to navigate these turbulent waters?
Last month, the iconic giant pandas Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei bid farewell to their Japanese fans at Ueno Zoo, returning to China. This symbolic move highlights the deteriorating ties between the two nations.
Beijing's decision to reclaim its pandas is just one of the many actions taken in response to Takaichi's comments, which have plunged China-Japan relations to an all-time low. Since then, China has employed a multi-pronged approach, from sending warships to Japan's shores to curbing rare earth exports and Chinese tourism.
As Takaichi embarks on a new term as Prime Minister, analysts predict a challenging road ahead. The recent snap election, which gave her a strong public mandate, may embolden her stance, making de-escalation difficult.
The row began in November when Takaichi suggested Japan's self-defence force would be activated in the event of an attack on Taiwan. This statement, while in line with the government's position, was the first of its kind from a sitting Japanese Prime Minister.
China's claim over self-governed Taiwan and its insistence on sovereignty has long been a red line. Any perceived interference, like Takaichi's remarks, triggers a furious response.
Beijing demanded a retraction, but Takaichi stood firm, refusing to apologize. Her strong electoral win may justify this stance, but she has since promised to be more cautious with her words.
However, China's anger persists. Faced with Takaichi's unwavering position, China has maintained a steady stream of pressure. Analysts note that this time feels different, with China expanding its pressure on multiple fronts.
Robert Ward, the Japan chair for the International Institute of Strategic Studies, describes it as a diffuse, low-level pressure, similar to China's "greyzone warfare" tactics on Taiwan. It's a strategy aimed at wearing down the opponent and normalizing abnormal situations.
Diplomatically, China has lodged complaints at the UN and postponed a trilateral summit. It has also tried to rally support, calling on the UK and France while urging its allies to denounce Japan.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi even invoked Japan's World War II history, calling Takaichi's remarks a dangerous development.
On the military front, Japan has reported Chinese drones, warships, and fighter jets near its islands. Coast guard ships have confronted each other near disputed territories, and a Chinese fishing vessel was seized last week.
But China's pressure extends beyond military posturing. It aims to hit Japan where it hurts - its economy. Beijing has restricted exports of dual-use technologies and rare earth elements, a form of economic coercion.
China has also warned its citizens against traveling to Japan, leading to a drop in tourism and a slide in some stocks. Chinese nationals make up a quarter of Japan's foreign tourists.
Even entertainment and culture are not immune. Japanese music events have been canceled in China, and film releases postponed. One of Japan's most famous cultural exports, Pokemon, faced criticism over an event at the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's war dead, including those considered war criminals by China.
On social media, Chinese online nationalists have attacked Takaichi, sharing AI-generated videos depicting pop culture and anime characters fighting the Prime Minister.
If tensions do ease, observers predict they will settle at a higher level than before. Both sides are less likely to de-escalate, with China's increased strength and Taiwan's centrality to its core interests.
Beijing is deeply suspicious of Takaichi and may view her attempts at de-escalation as hypocritical. Meanwhile, Japan, with Takaichi's electoral win, has a greater appetite to stand firm.
Takaichi has pledged to increase defense spending, revise security strategies, and launch an economic stimulus package. She will likely use her win as political capital to strengthen Japan's position.
Kiyoteru Tsutsui, a Japan expert, suggests that China may not intensify its pressure further, as Takaichi is a strong leader, and the campaign could strengthen her domestically.
The wildcard is US President Donald Trump's strong support for Takaichi. While US-China relations are expected to warm this year, with several meetings scheduled, the US response to the latest spat has been muted so far.
As China continues its pressure campaign, Japan is likely to shoulder more of the defense burden it shares with the US.
Takaichi is set to meet Trump again in March, ahead of his trip to China. The outcome of this meeting could be a pivotal moment in this complex geopolitical dance.
